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US Sugar Supply on the Rise with Increased Imports

The U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is expected to increase, despite a decrease in domestic production, according to a recent report from the U.S Department of Agriculture. The report forecasts a rise in imports, particularly from sources other than Mexico, to compensate for the lower domestic output.

While domestic sugar production is projected to fall by 27,000 short tons, raw value (STRV), due to lower beet sugar production, imports are expected to climb by 86,000 STRV to 3.417 million. This increase is driven by several factors, including higher imports under the raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ), re-export programs, and high-tier duty.

Notably, the report anticipates a significant surge in high-tier duty raw sugar imports, reaching a record 615,000 STRV. This influx is attributed to the ongoing robust import pace and a decline in expected imports from Mexico. As a result, high-tier duty imports are projected to surpass imports from Mexico, traditionally a major supplier, and become the second largest import source behind the raw sugar TRQ.

The USDA report also highlights a rise in U.S. sugar exports, primarily due to the re-export program with Mexico. Despite the adjustments in supply and use, ending stocks for 2023/24 are still expected to be higher than previously estimated.