This Week in Ag (July 26)

Fundamentals and Techs lean friendly heading into the Fed announcement.

Fundamental

Ag markets posted gains for the week, with wheat and cotton being the strongest movers.

55% of US corn area and 50% of soybean area is currently reported as being under drought, but crop-condition scores for both crops were unchanged on the week. Cotton condition scores continue to reflect Texas stress, with 40% of the state’s production rate as poor to very poor.

The 6-10 day outlook calls for well above normal temperatures, centered in the Texas gulf region, gradually moderating, moving north toward the central corn belt. The outlook for moisture is slightly more favorable, with most regions assessed with near- to above-normal rainfall prospects.

Technical

The tech picture continues to look friendly for most major crops.

Corn achieved a bullish moving average cross this week, so all three grain markets are now in that phase. Cotton posted new highs for 2023 as it topped 87 cents per pound. CFTC reports showed an increase in open interest across all markets and managed money traders added length in all markets, further supporting the friendly vibe.

Macro

Output from today’s Federal Reserve Board meeting is the most significant macro event this week.

A rate hike is widely presumed, but most market attention will be given to reading the Fed’s plans for later this year – i.e. will rates continue to climb in the second half of 2023?

The Black Sea grain transit agreement ended and both sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict subsequently announced their intentions to stop and inspect any unknown vessels. Market watchers are guardedly optimistic that seaborne shipments will resume as weeks go by, but for now the lane appears to be closed.

Trading strategy is based on the author's views and analysis as of the date of first publication. From time to time the author's views may change due to new information or evolving market conditions. Any major updates to the author's views will be published separately in the author's weekly commentary or a new deep dive.

This content is for educational purposes only and is NOT financial advice. Before acting on any information you must consult with your financial advisor.