This Week in Ag (August 23)

Author: Doug Christie

Fundamental

Soy is the only market that has been able to trade above pre-WASDE levels despite the reports from USDA which lowered production and projected stocks for corn, soy, wheat and cotton.

Perception seems to be that crop prospects have stabilized and yields will meet or exceed current projections. Crop scores were unchanged this week for corn and soy, while cotton posted further declines. Demand continues to be a source of concern for would-be bulls.

Technical

Technical indicators match the soft price tone. COT reports showed a net increase in managed money short positions in corn and wheat, a reduction in net managed money longs for soy, and flat positions in cotton.

Corn and wheat remain under a bearish moving-average pattern, while soy is flirting with a switch to the bull side and cotton verges on a bearish flip.

Macro

A soft tone in the economic outlook is not lending any support to commodities. Global stock markets have worked lower and reports from China continue to flag growth prospects.

Trading strategy is based on the author's views and analysis as of the date of first publication. From time to time the author's views may change due to new information or evolving market conditions. Any major updates to the author's views will be published separately in the author's weekly commentary or a new deep dive.

This content is for educational purposes only and is NOT financial advice. Before acting on any information you must consult with your financial advisor.