US Soybean Ending Stocks Projected Higher for 2024/25 as Crush Declines

The USDA has revised its forecast for US soybean ending stocks in the 2024/25 marketing year upwards by 10 million bushels, reaching 455 million bushels. This increase is attributed to a downward revision of the soybean crush forecast for the current 2023/24 marketing year, reflecting lower domestic demand for soybean meal.

"A higher carryover raised the marketing year (MY) 2024/25 U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast by 10.0 million bushels to 455.0 million bushels," the USDA report states.

The USDA has reduced the soybean crush forecast for MY 2023/24 by 10 million bushels to 2.29 billion bushels, citing slower livestock growth and higher domestic soybean meal prices as contributing factors to the decrease in domestic demand.

"The higher domestic soybean meal prices along with slower livestock growth contributed to revised estimate for U.S. soybean meal demand," the report explains.

Despite the lower domestic demand for soybean meal, US soybean meal exports remain strong, outpacing last year's shipments throughout the spring season. This strong export performance has helped offset the decline in domestic demand. However, as Argentina's crushing season begins, US exports are expected to slow in the coming months.

"Although U.S. soybean meal exports are on a seasonal decline, exports are still outpacing last year’s shipments throughout the spring season," the report notes.

While the outlook for US soybean ending stocks appears positive, the report highlights the impact of lower domestic demand for soybean meal on crush volumes and the potential for increased competition from Argentina as its crushing season commences.

The report also provides an update on global rapeseed production for the 2024/25 marketing year, forecasting a decrease of 1.3 million metric tons due to lower production in the EU and Australia. The report further forecasts declines in global rapeseed crush and ending stocks.

"Global rapeseed production for MY 2024/25 is reduced this month by 1.3 million metric tons to 87.1 million metric tons on lower production in the EU and Australia," the report states.

The report also includes an update on Brazil's soybean production in the 2023/24 marketing year. Persistent rain in Rio Grande do Sul has disrupted harvest progress and limited the number of fields that can be harvested, leading to a reduction in production estimates.

"The State of Rio Grande do Sul agency, EMATER/RS (Associação Riograndense de Empreendimentos de Assistência Técnica e Extensão Rural), reported a reduction in the State’s soybean acreage and production," the report notes. "The harvested area is estimated down by 100,000 hectares to 45.8 million hectares."