US Corn Production Expected to Decline, But Exports to Rise Amidst Global Shifts
US corn production is projected to decline in the 2024/25 marketing year, but exports are forecast to rise as global production dynamics shift, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released by the USDA.
The agency forecasts US corn production to reach 14.9 billion bushels, a 3% decrease from the previous year's record high. This decline is attributed to a reduction in planted area, partially offset by an anticipated increase in yield.
Despite the lower production, total US corn supplies are projected to reach their highest level since the 2017/18 marketing year, thanks to higher beginning stocks.
"With higher beginning stocks, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18," the WASDE report states.
US corn exports are forecast to rise to 2.2 billion bushels, a 50-million-bushel increase from the previous year. This increase is driven by a projected decline in exports from major competitors, including Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.
"U.S. corn exports for 2024/25 are forecast to rise 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion, supported by a combined 5.4-million-ton reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine," the report explains.
As a result of the expected increase in exports and stable domestic use, US corn ending stocks are projected to rise to their highest level since the 2018/19 marketing year.
Globally, the WASDE report projects record corn production and use in the 2024/25 marketing year, with fractionally lower ending stocks. While corn production is forecast to decline slightly from the prior year's record, mainly due to lower output in the United States and Ukraine, this is partially offset by larger crops projected for Brazil, the EU, and China.
The report highlights shifts in global corn trade patterns, with reduced import demand from the EU and Canada, but increased imports projected for Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and several other countries.
Overall, the WASDE report suggests a mixed outlook for the US corn market, with lower production but increased export opportunities. The global corn market is expected to remain well-supplied, with record production and use anticipated in the coming year.