Mexico Sugar Production Revised Upward, US Beet Sugar Output Trimmed

Mexico's sugar production for the 2023/24 marketing year has been revised upward, while US beet sugar production estimates have been trimmed, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released by the USDA last week.

The report projects Mexico's sugar output to reach 4.649 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 76,541 MT from the previous month's estimate. This upward revision is based on higher sugarcane yields and improved sucrose recovery rates, as indicated by recent production data.

"Mexico production for 2023/24 is projected at 4.649 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 76,541 over last month," the WASDE report states.

Despite the increase, the report acknowledges the potential for downside risks to Mexico's production due to concerns about inadequate sugar content in the remaining sugarcane crop. The share of low-polarity sugar, which is primarily exported to the US market, is also expected to decrease.

Meanwhile, US beet sugar production for the 2023/24 marketing year has been reduced by 49,192 short tons, raw value (STRV), to 5.095 million STRV. This decrease is attributed to ongoing challenges with beet pile shrink and reduced sucrose recovery rates.

"Beet sugar production for 2023/24 is decreased 49,192 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 5.095 million," the report states.

The WASDE report provides a mixed outlook for sugar production in North America. While Mexico's output is expected to be higher than previously anticipated, US beet sugar production faces headwinds. The USDA highlights the uncertainties associated with weather conditions, sucrose recovery rates, and market dynamics that could influence future production levels.