Global Wheat Production Remains Stable, Consumption Rises

The USDA's latest Wheat Outlook report indicates that global wheat production for the 2022/23 marketing year will remain relatively stable, with a slight increase of 0.1 million metric tons (MMT) to 789.0 MMT. This stability is attributed to increased production in Ethiopia, which offset reductions in the European Union, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, and Zimbabwe.

Ethiopia's wheat production saw a significant boost due to expanded wheat area and record-high yields. Conversely, Argentina experienced a decline in production due to final estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture.

Despite stable production, global wheat consumption is projected to rise by 2.0 MMT to 789.6 MMT. This increase is driven by higher feed and residual use, particularly in the European Union and China. The EU is importing more feed-quality wheat from Ukraine, while China has increased its imports from Australia.

Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is also expected to rise slightly, with India releasing wheat from government stocks, leading to higher consumption. However, high international wheat prices have limited FSI use in countries like Indonesia and the Philippines.

Global wheat exports are projected to decrease, primarily due to a slower pace of exports from the European Union and Argentina. This is partially offset by increases in exports from Russia and Ukraine, facilitated by the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

The report also highlights a decline in global ending stocks, reaching the lowest point since 2015/16. This is mainly due to reduced stocks in India and the Philippines, partially offset by increased stocks among major exporters.