Global Sugar Production Up, But Stocks and Exports Forecast to Decline

Global sugar production is expected to rise slightly in the 2023/24 marketing year, but stocks and exports are forecast to decline, according to the latest sugar report released by the USDA.

The report projects global sugar production to reach 186 million metric tons (MT), a 2.5-million-ton increase from the previous year. This increase is mainly driven by anticipated growth in production in Thailand, India, China, and Mexico, while a reduction in Brazilian production is projected.

"Global sugar production is forecast up 2.5 million tons to 186.0 million with lower production in Brazil expected to more than offset higher production in Thailand, India, China, and Mexico," the report states.

Global sugar consumption is anticipated to hit a record high, with growth in markets such as India and Pakistan. This increased consumption, coupled with reduced exports and lower ending stocks in Thailand, is expected to contribute to a slight decline in global sugar stocks.

"Consumption is anticipated to rise to a new record with growth in markets such as India and Pakistan," the report notes. "Exports are forecast lower due to reduced shipments from Brazil, India, and Thailand. Stocks are forecast lower as reduced stocks in Thailand are projected to more than offset a rise in stocks in India."

The report also provides updates on sugar production in specific regions:

Brazil: Sugar production is forecast to decrease by 1.5 million tons to 44 million tons, the second-highest on record. The production mix is anticipated to favor sugar over ethanol, reflecting favorable sugar prices.

Thailand: Sugarcane production is expected to decline by 12% from the previous year, while sugar production is forecast to drop by 20% due to unfavorable weather conditions and a lower sugar extraction rate.

Mexico: Sugar production is projected at 4.649 million tons, an increase from the previous month's estimate due to higher sugarcane yields and improved sucrose recovery rates.

United States: Sugar production is forecast to increase marginally to 8.4 million tons, with beet sugar production accounting for the majority of the output.