EU Agriculture and Climate Change: An Overview

The European Union's agricultural sector is facing a complex and challenging reality intertwined with climate change. While agriculture contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, it is also highly vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate.

Rising Temperatures and Extreme Weather Events:

Global temperatures have been steadily increasing, with the period between 2011-2020 experiencing an average temperature 1.09°C higher than the pre-industrial era (1850-1900). This warming trend is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, heavy precipitation, and droughts. These events are already impacting water security, hindering agricultural productivity growth, and ultimately threatening food security.

Shifting Agro-climatic Zones and Water Scarcity:

The changing climate is leading to a northward shift in agro-climatic zones, affecting crop cultivation patterns across Europe. This shift, along with the increased frequency of droughts and reduced rainfall, is contributing to water scarcity. In 2019, 29% of the EU's territory (excluding Italy) experienced water scarcity during at least one season. This trend is expected to continue, leading to intensified competition for water resources and potential restrictions on water use.

Soil Health and Nutrient Management:

The potential impact of nutrient losses on soil health is measured by the gross nitrogen balance. While the EU's average nitrogen surplus per hectare of utilized agricultural area (UAA) remained relatively stable between 2010-2015, significant geographical variations exist. Countries like the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Czechia, Croatia, and Cyprus consistently record surplus values exceeding 50 kg N/ha, highlighting the potential for soil degradation and nutrient pollution.

Greenhouse Gas and Ammonia Emissions:

While greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from EU agriculture slightly declined between 2013-2023, driven primarily by reductions in animal production, ammonia emissions remained relatively stable during the period 2010-2020. These emissions contribute to air pollution and climate change, underscoring the need for sustainable agricultural practices.

Source: EU Agricultural Outlook 2023-2035